Stonk Research

2.3 2022

2.3.1 December 2022

Smart center might be a bad stock as 2023 renewal at a higher interest rate, its possible to get higher rents, but hard to say either way.

As a result would expect earnings to collapse, so buy around $20 dollars or lower.

2.3.2 November 2022

AQN tanked due to higher interest rates (interest rates since september have interest about 50%), so this is likely to continue to lose money, could rebuy at 10$ or 8$, government subsibies are likely to grow as climate change becomes a bigger issue.

Governments have not been taking climate change seriously enough.

NEO also tanked a lot, will have to investigate, 5$ for neo sohuld be solid.

2.3.3 October 2022

A lot of losses, some of which are just paper handed stuff.

Holding existing positions add to enb.to (convert to usd later) and maybe start an intel position later after q3 dividend from zim.

Week of october 15 2022.

Wait until friday after snap earnings before buying anything.

2.3.4 September 2022

Likely going to convert cashable gic to europe etf from vanguard, convert all of it with 2 purchases.

One in november, middle of winter, should be harash, then in 2023.

2.3.5 August 2022

Rhine drying up should be a major supply chain disruption along with the other main europe river.

Seems like the cost of food will surge with the addition of wildfires and floods, the group effect will be devasting. Cattle prices are surging as well.

Think climate change tech will go up a lot, but its hard to say.

Hold bloom until earnings and see how it performs.

Seems like sbsw sale was prudent given revised guidance expect it to lose money next quarter.

4 to 5 shiploads to get to the end, crazy stuff [1].

With the announcement by the government of canada and germany to produce green hydrogen, I think the technology is provided by watr.v, if this is true, then watr.v is an easy 10 to 20 bagger, but I think within a few years it will be a 50 bagger at these current levels.

Stonks to watch

CFF, lumber

GMX, mining, earning royalities, commidities crashedtho

Tree island steel

GPV at the right price

IFOS stock

ZIM Q2 2022 predictions

Zim mostly charters ships, with the charter rates up, zim is likely to make less money, 12.81 seems reasonable, but with existing charter rates locked in for a year, I doubt that it will have a major impact, sblk was %17 percent up, zim has managed to outperform before. %26 percent, for marserk, aiming for %20 especially considering how zim has grew earnings before. So between $ 14 and $ 17, think earnings will be % 16.

So many problems with fish and heat waves, this is awful.

ZIM Q2 earnings afterthoughts

Revenue was about the same, but because they are exposed to spot rates, seems like the price went down, didnt expect earnings to pop like this, with a change in policy to %30 in dividends, seems like a cash cow generator, with the unpriced supply chain disruptions due to the rhine river issues and other waterways being low for shipping, expect a solid future quarter.

Costs went up due to fuel costs, which have dropped again, if revenue remains about the same, expect beat. Other costs up as well.

price target $60.

Failed to understand factors that impact the stonk.

Climate change should still be a factor and allow zim to continue to earn record amounts of money.

With the rise of ships from 137 to 149 vessels, think zim should meet guidance.

Bull Case till 2024

* New regulations for lng * appreciation to prices

* script to perform modelling, maybe in juypter book, doing here makes no sense.

Bear Case

*

2.3.6 July 2022

Before fed meeting, I think I can day trade oil stocks depending on the circumstances, since the economy is strong, I assume powell will go with 0.75%, since this is similar to canada there is no meeting in august, might be a similar policy to canada where they jack up interest rates to 1.00% or 1.25%.

Given how oil and shipping indicies have gone down, we are in technical recession, they will ignore all that to hit inflation. With a policy rate of 0.75% or higher I should not buy oil stocks until the day of the meeting.

Tilray seems decent, but want a price or 2 or 3 dollars rather than the current price, with all the competitors going bust, it could do well. If they do the expected, or 0.75% to 1.00%, buy kei and stocks should go up the next day, if lower than expected definitely buy stocks as they wont raise again for 2 months, think we will have a short relief rally. Considering food bank usage is same as mid pandemic, I think we are easily in recession.

POW.TO Q2 earnings analysis

They made a lot less money due to investments crashing, very considering, will they even pay a dividend now, questionable purchase now, at September 29 they will pay out 49.5 cents per share, reasonable to acquire this stock at 15 dollars.

That should be reasonable, their assets should hold up think a reasonable drop would lead to $ 20 dollars, could start a small position, they seem like they will keep their dividend but any further deterioration likely means dividend in jeopardy.

Teck

Teck I think it will do okay, coal about up 10% for the quarter, zinc about 20% down for the quarter, oil likely 10% to 20% up overall. Teck 5 year average, 50% coal, 25% copper, 23% zinc, 4% energy (maybe 8 percent energy). Plus or minus 5% off estimated earnings, probably going to miss slightly.

If drops to 25% I will buy teck, think thats a decent price.

2.3.7 June 2022

I suspect that powell will keep raising rates, I think that they will level off at 5%. With the new increase of food production and if gas stays around $100, its still pretty bad for inflation costs. As inflation continues to rise, the prices will eventually go up, less chickens and agriculture products (bad harvest this year).

So I think inflation will hover around 9% year over year and rates the benchmark rate will hit around 4%, buy bonds at this point.

Can buy some for rrsp at 6% or 7% yield.

https://www.vanguard.ca/en/advisor/products/products-group/etfs/VLB